Mark Lamb, the former sheriff of Pinal County and the Republican nominee for Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, is widely expected to win his race this November. But a growing bloc of Latter-day Saints voters in the district — particularly women — is expressing misgivings about his candidacy, creating an unexpected opening for Democrats in a seat that has long been a conservative stronghold.
Kimberly Tait, a resident of Gilbert, Arizona, illustrates the shift. A lifelong registered Republican, she changed her affiliation to independent in 2016 after struggling to reconcile her conservative views with the direction of the GOP under President Trump. “I’m not super progressive politically and I’m really pretty moderate,” Tait said. “But the MAGA movement in and of itself is — it’s just really gross to me.”
Tait is also a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, a faith community with significant influence in the 5th District. For her, Lamb presents a second political problem. The former sheriff faces accusations of sexual misconduct and racist remarks dating to his time in law enforcement, allegations that have unsettled some members of his own church who question whether his conduct matches his public persona.
Lamb’s campaign slogan is “God, Family, Freedom.” Tait said the message rings hollow given the controversies surrounding him. “The candidate and all that they represent is the antithesis of that,” she said. “Yes, Mark Lamb is a member of my faith. He also belongs to the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. But from what I understand about Mark Lamb, the dishonesty that has been displayed in his public and private life is completely contra” — a sentiment shared by other LDS women in the district who spoke with NPR.
The friction is notable because Arizona’s 5th District is one of the most reliably Republican areas in the state. Lamb is still favored in the general election, but the reluctance of Mormon voters — a critical constituency in local races — could make the contest closer than usual. In a district where margins are typically comfortable for the GOP, even a modest erosion of support among religious conservatives can meaningfully tighten a race.
Latter-day Saints voters have historically been a conservative-leaning bloc, but their political behavior is not monolithic. Many LDS voters place a premium on personal integrity, family stability and honesty in public officials, values that are central to the faith’s culture. When candidates face credible allegations of misconduct, that emphasis can override partisan loyalty, particularly among women who say they are modeling civic behavior for their children.
The allegations against Lamb have not been adjudicated in a court of law, and he has not been convicted of any crime related to them. But the accusations themselves have become a political liability in a race where character issues are resonating with a slice of the GOP base. For some LDS women, the question is less about legal outcomes than about whether a candidate’s conduct reflects the values he claims to represent.
This dynamic is playing out against a broader backdrop of shifting loyalties in Arizona politics. The state has become a battleground in recent election cycles, with suburban voters — including many women and religious moderates — moving away from strict party-line voting. Tait’s own journey from registered Republican to independent reflects that trend. She describes herself as conservative but alienated by the MAGA movement, a tension that is increasingly visible in Arizona’s affluent, fast-growing suburbs.
Democrats, meanwhile, see an opportunity in the discontent. Even if the 5th District remains out of reach in a normal year, the party is hoping that disaffected Republicans and independents will either stay home or cross over, narrowing the gap and forcing Republicans to spend resources defending a seat they usually take for granted. National Democrats have signaled they intend to compete in red districts where candidate quality issues could tip the balance.
The LDS community’s role in Arizona politics is not new. Members of the church have long been active in civic life and have helped shape elections in the eastern Phoenix suburbs and beyond. But their willingness to break with a Republican nominee over character concerns marks a notable moment. In past cycles, LDS voters have shown they will withhold support from candidates they view as morally compromised, even when that means backing a Democrat or sitting out a race.
For Lamb, the challenge is to consolidate a base that is normally his by default. His campaign has emphasized conservative priorities and his law enforcement background, and he continues to enjoy support from many Republican voters who prioritize policy over personal controversy. But every LDS voter who hesitates or defects adds to the Democratic math in a district where turnout and margins are measured in thousands, not millions.
Tait’s case highlights the personal nature of the calculation. She said she is not looking for a progressive champion; she wants a representative who reflects honesty and family values as she understands them. That leaves her, and voters like her, weighing a difficult choice in a race where the Republican nominee is expected to win but where his conduct has made the outcome less certain than party registration alone would suggest.
The broader implication for Republicans is that candidate controversies can have measurable costs even in safe seats. A district that should be a reliable hold can become a distraction — drawing money, attention and opposition research to a race that was never supposed to be competitive. For Democrats, the hope is that moral objections among LDS women translate into real votes, or at least into reduced Republican turnout.
With the general election approaching, the contest in Arizona’s 5th District has become a test of whether character still matters to a key religious constituency. Lamb remains the favorite, but the unease among Latter-day Saints women suggests that his path to victory may be narrower than his party would like. In a red seat where the outcome was once assumed, the votes of a few thousand churchgoing women could prove more consequential than anyone expected.
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